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As more people use ChatGPT to do their holiday shopping, big companies like Ulta, Adidas and Best Buy seemed to dominate mentions in Black Friday shopping queries, according to data from Profound.

Tariffs

‘You want to play defense’: Amid economic pressure, brands usher in Black Friday by trimming deals

November 24, 2025

Turmoil from tariffs and pressure on margins are forcing some brands to play it safer this Cyber Week.

Marketplace Briefing: Some Amazon sellers skip Black Friday deals as tariffs and platform fees bite

November 20, 2025

Some Amazon sellers are reducing or skipping their Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions as tariffs and platform fees squeeze margins.

Other news to know

  • Brands’ AI strategies
  • This year, Guitar Center launched a chatbot to help customers find the right products and an employee training tool that simulates customer interactions.
  • Kroger has launched a weekly AI-generated insights report for brand executives, analysts or category managers to analyze their performance.
  • In partnership with OpenAI, Target has launched a new Target app within ChatGPT, allowing shoppers to ask for ideas, build multi-item baskets, shop for fresh food and check out using their Target account.
  • John Furner’s tenure as the next CEO of Walmart will at least initially be defined by how the company evolves from testing and experimenting with AI to implementing it throughout the company.
Top Stories Oct 10

Tractor Supply bets on OpenAI as its primary AI partner

December 04, 2025

Tractor Supply is honing in on OpenAI as its main partner for AI technology. A tech executive at Tractor Supply said he wanted to pair up with OpenAI to learn the best ways to implement AI and to create consistencies around governance and its future roadmap.

Luxury resale is angling to be the big winner of this year’s secondhand gift boom

December 03, 2025

Luxury resale is having a moment this holiday season as it benefits from people looking for value and a growing acceptance of pre-owned items as gifts.

From UGC to R&D: POV Beauty’s Ani Hadjinian on leveraging community for every product launch

December 03, 2025

POV Beauty CEO Ani Hadjinian breaks down how creator intuition, community feedback and social commerce are reshaping beauty’s growth playbook.

Lowe’s, Oura and Build-A-Bear are Modern Retail Awards finalists

December 02, 2025

For this year’s Modern Retail Awards, the finalists underscored the value of blending in-store engagement with digital tools and platforms to create frictionless customer journeys. From personalization as a core strategy to innovative and interactive experiences, the finalists are deepening customer connections and seeing high-impact results.

Brands Briefing: Changing Cyber Week patterns and drawn-out sales force brands to shift strategies 

December 02, 2025

Consumers are demanding value, which only made it more crucial that brands got the lead-up to Black Friday and Cyber Monday right this year. Brands like Brooklinen, Tecovas and Made In adopted slightly different strategies to ensure they made their value proposition clear to customers in the weeks and months leading up to Cyber Week.

Ulta, Best Buy and Adidas dominate AI holiday shopping mentions

December 04, 2025

As more people use ChatGPT to do their holiday shopping, big companies like Ulta, Adidas and Best Buy seemed to dominate mentions in Black Friday shopping queries, according to data from Profound.

TikTok Shop sheds bargain-bin reputation as average prices climb across categories

December 02, 2025

TikTok Shop’s once-ultracheap prices are rising as subsidies fade, tariffs climb and major brands join the platform, driving average unit costs sharply higher across multiple categories.

Bradley Keefer, CRO, Keen Decision Systems

The current economic outlook is uncertain, with consumer confidence declining, egg prices climbing and new tariffs in place. Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions caused by understaffing and trade war implications pose broader risks to the global economy.

With so much turmoil, long-term marketing budgets pose a challenge for retailers. To remain prepared, many use scenario planning to navigate uncertainty and ensure their marketing plans stay agile and adaptable.

Scenario planning helps retailers mitigate economic risks while uncovering opportunities to stay ahead, even as competitors adjust their own strategies. It considers current and future forecasts, providing a blueprint for swift adaptation and sustained competitive advantage.

Prioritizing the most relevant scenarios to build a game plan

Every brand feels the effects of economic shifts differently, making it crucial to focus on the most relevant challenges. A Canadian-based company may prioritize the impact of tariffs, while a U.S. grocer might focus on pricing strategies to address rising egg prices.

Brands should also consider broader factors like shifting consumer behavior and how competitors respond to economic pressures to get a complete picture of the scenarios. By anticipating these shifts, businesses can better navigate uncertainty and stay competitive.

Once marketers fully understand the key factors affecting their business, they can map out possible scenarios featuring challenges and opportunities.

Retailers should consider short- and long-term possibilities as they adapt to an ever-changing landscape. Modeling over time helps reveal the lasting impact of current decisions, whether increasing spending to counter headwinds or cutting budgets due to internal pressures. Being mindful of these long-term effects ensures smarter strategic choices.

Analyzing the implications and developing a roadmap with modeling tools

Once key scenarios are established, retailers should assess how each outcome could impact their strategy, identifying opportunities and challenges. For example, if inflation rises and consumer confidence declines, offering trade coupons can help differentiate a retailer from pricier competitors while providing customer savings.

Retailers can also evaluate how inflation might strain budgets, prompting a shift toward higher-performing channels like search or social media. Additionally, modeling tools allow them to test different profit margin assumptions, helping brands adjust budgets based on projected revenue.

The key to scenario planning is creating a clear roadmap that guides marketers on when to respond to a particular outcome. It should outline budget, channel allocation, campaign timing and expected ROI to ensure every investment delivers value.

Marketing mix modeling is a powerful tool for mapping the most effective path forward. For instance, if a global CPG company faces budget cuts due to a trade war, marketing mix modeling can help reassess spending and optimize allocation, minimizing impact without sacrificing marketing efforts.

These tools also assist in budget sizing. If a brand has specific revenue targets, modeling can determine how much additional investment is needed to overcome challenges and stay on track.

Staying ahead with continuous scenario planning

Being prepared doesn’t stop once the plan is set. Marketers must continuously monitor economic signals to know when to act and adjust strategies. Staying proactive means brands can get ahead of potential challenges and refine their approach over time.

For example, should supply chain issues resurface, a furniture company severely impacted by delays related to the COVID-19 pandemic would recognize early warning signs and respond accordingly. Ongoing testing is also essential, helping retailers fine-tune spending and channel allocation for the most effective results.

In this uncertain economy, planning just one week ahead can feel daunting. Scenario planning offers a proactive solution, and modeling tools provide real-time insights to help marketers make swift, informed decisions. As brands look ahead, scenario planning will be key to staying agile and competitive.

Sponsored by Keen Decision Systems